• Indian equity market witnessed a sharp profit booking in Tuesday's trading session after a one-way vertical rally. The weakness can be attributed to selling in the global markets after US 10-year bond yield moved above the 1.80 mark during the day. FIIs are net sellers for the last 4 trading sessions while the sharp selling in last hour of trade indicates that we may have another day of selling by FIIs.

    Technically, 18,300-18,350 is a minor resistance zone where Nifty witnessed a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern that may lead to further weakness. Tuesday's low of 18,085 is at 9-DMA (daily moving average); below this, 17,950-17,800 will be the next important support level while 17,650 is critical support at any correction, however, every correction is a good buying opportunity.

    For the Bank Nifty, 38,800-39,100 is an important resistance zone and 38,850 is a 61.8 percent retracement of the previous fall where it witnessed sharp profit booking in late trade. On the downside, 38,000 is an immediate and psychological support level while 37,500-37,000 will be the next major support levels. On the upside, if it manages to take out the 39,100 level then we can expect a rally towards the 40,000 level.

  • Nifty has been rising for last 7 consecutive sessions and settled the week at 18,308 - surpassing the previous swing high of 18,210. The index is currently placed above all important moving averages, which indicates bullish trend on all time frames.

    Previous swing high of 17,944 was taken out recently, which is a sign of continuation of an uptrend with higher tops and higher bottoms on short term charts. Indicators and Oscillators have been showing strength in the current uptrend on the daily charts.

    Nifty has surpassed the resistance of 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the downswing seen from 18,604 to 16,410. Only resistance which is visible on the chart is 100 percent, which is placed at the 18,604.

    The Previous swing highs of 18,210 and 17,944 are expected to interchange its role as a supports going forward for the Nifty.

    To conclude, we believe that Nifty is in continuation of an uptrend and same should extend. Currently Indian Markets are outperforming and we could see Indian benchmarks to register new all-time highs. Breadth of the market is very strong, which confirms the bullishness. We advise to Hold Nifty longs with 17,940 stop-loss and keep it trailing.

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  • The market was off to a cheerful start on January 10 despite mixed global cues. Barring a small dip around mid day, the Nifty traded in the green throughout the session to gradual march towards the 18,000-mark. Some tail-end buying helped the Nifty push past the psychological mark to end the session over a percent higher.

    The move got extended in the next couple of days as the benchmark index breezed through the key resistance zone of 18,100–18,200. Lack of participation from heavyweight spaces like banking and IT in the later half, however, saw the index consolidate in a small range to conclude end the week a tad above 18,250.

    In the week gone by, the Nifty gained 2 percent to rally more than 1,800 points in a span of four weeks, which is remarkable. The market is now exhibiting behaviour that generally happens after a decent rally and if any major event is close by.

    Since we are inching closer to the budget, key indices seem to be in a consolidation mode.

    For the coming week, 18,350 is the level to watch. Once it is surpassed, there is no major level visible before 18,600. As of now, we do not expect a runaway move in the forthcoming week, hence, traders are advised to focus on individual stocks because almost each sector has started chipping in.

    Apart from this, the broader market has started buzzing, which generally indicates a healthy rally. One needs to on potential movers to make decent gains. As far as supports go, 18,200 followed by 18,100 should be considered key levels and the sacrosanct base remains at 18,000.

  • The Nifty managed to close above 18,000 psychological mark for the 3rd session and formed a Doji candle on daily charts. However it is important to note that in the recent up move, the index has been forming small bodied candles indicating loss of momentum.

    The RSI (relative strength index) indicator on lower timeframes is showing price momentum divergence.

    The Nifty has resistance in the 18,270-18,330 zone whereas the support lies at 17,900 mark.

    The index looks over-stretched and could possibly be rangebound and witness a pullback towards 17,900-17,950 levels. On the flip side if index manages to cross 18,330 then it can move higher towards the life time high of 18,600.

  • It is almost end of the financial year 2021-2022, with just three months left before investors can take investment decisions to finalise their tax-saving plans for the financial year.

    Equity linked saving schemes (ELSS) are among the instruments that are eligible for tax deduction under section 80c. This is an important section as one can claim upto Rs 1.5 lakh deduction under this section.

    While there are several other options under 80c such as Public Provident Fund (PPF), National Saving Certification (NSC), bank tax-saving deposits and life insurance, ELSS has also grown into a popular instrument.

    The mutual fund industry also wants Ministry of Finance to allow a debt-linked saving scheme (DLSS), so that mutual funds can come up with similar products on the debt side as well. But for now, it is only the ELSS funds where mutual funds offer tax-saving feature to investors.

    As an equity mutual fund scheme, ELSS can not only help individuals to bring down their tax liability, but also create wealth over the longer term. Of course, it would finally depend upon the scheme’s performance and the overall performance of equity markets during your holding period.

    ELSS funds come with three-year lock-in period. After the lock-in period is over, investors can fully or partially withdraw their investments or even stay invested if they wish to.

    Remember, any capital gains from your ELSS investments will still be liable for long-term capital gains of 10 percent, if the gains are more than Rs 1 lakh. You get tax relief in ELSS as you can claim deduction for the investments that you make in such funds during the financial year.

    As it is an equity-linked product, ELSS can go through periods of sharp volatility and investment returns can see sharp fluctuations.

    So, how should you go about selecting an ELSS fund that suits your risk-profile, as well as return expectations, and what should you do if the scheme returns turn out to be below-par even par after a three-year lock-in?

    In today’s episode of Simply Save Podcast, Moneycontrol’s Jash Kriplani talks with Rushabh Desai, founder of Rupee with Rushabh Investment Services, on what you should keep in mind when investing in an ELSS fund.

  • On the daily chart, Nifty50 has given a falling wedge pattern breakout on January 3, 2022 and has given a return of 3.50 percent to date without a meaningful correction. Meanwhile on the broader time frame (weekly) prices have given a bullish flag pattern breakout and prices are inching near their previous lifetime high levels which are placed at 18,600 levels.

    The structure of the index is in favour of bulls. Market breadth has remained at 2:1 with 35 stocks on the advancing side and 15 stocks on the declining side. The prices on the daily chart are trading in a higher top higher bottom formation.

    A couple of weeks back prices were under a bit of pressure and were trading below their 21 & 50-day exponential moving average but a strong breakout in the current week has forced the prices to close above the said averages on the daily time frame.

    Nifty50 is most likely to cap near its previous resistance zone which is placed at 18,600 and if the index manages to cross above the said level then 19,000 will be on the cards soon. The immediate support for the index is placed near 17,900 levels.

    Bank Nifty after forming a Hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, prices have shown a strong reversal on the higher side and have taken support at its 21-week exponential moving average on the weekly chart. Important supports are now at 37,600-37,200 and resistance is placed near 39,200-39,500.

  • The third wave of COVID-19 has raised several questions in homebuyers’ and investors’ minds, especially when it comes to buying property. Ramesh Nair, CEO, India and Managing Director, Market Development, Asia, Colliers tells Vandana Ramnani that the year 2022 is a good time to buy a house as prices are at realistic levels, interest rates are at a decadal low and developers are offering attractive payment plans. For investors who wish to invest in commercial property, he advises that they should look for income producing investments such as fractional ownership assets or REITs. Don’t go in for direct ownership of a commercial asset if you don’t have Rs 3-4 crore in your pocket, he advises.

    Homebuyers and investors should be good negotiators and must have a deal planned in their mind from start to finish. And last but not the least, always be wary of the risks involved before investing, he signs off.

  • After rising for three consecutive weeks, Nifty has managed to continue with bullish momentum in the start of the current week also. Nifty has managed to surpass the psychological resistance placed at 18,000. From the bottom of 16,410, registered on December 20, 2021, Nifty has shown recovery of almost 10 percent in the span of 16 sessions while Bank Nifty has recovered 13 percent from the low of 34,018 in the same period. Bank Nifty has formed bullish rounding bottom formation on the daily charts, which indicates more upside room for the Index in the coming days.

    Last Week, Nifty surpassed the crucial resistance of the previous swing high placed at 17,640. Nifty has also surpassed the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level placed at 17,766, which has negated all the bearish developments on the medium term chart.

    Nifty is now placed above 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 DMA (day moving average), which indicates the bullish trend on all time frames. On the weekly charts, Nifty has broken out from “Flag” pattern, which indicates the bullish continuation trend. Previous resistance of 17,640 is now expected to act as a short term support for the Nifty going forward.

    Indicators and oscillators like MACD (moving average convergence divergence), RSI (relative strength index) and DMI (directional movement index) have reached bullish territory and showing strength in the current daily and weekly uptrend.

    To conclude, we believe that Nifty is in uptrend and dips should be utilized to create longs positions. Support for the Nifty is seen at 17,640. Upside targets for the Nifty are seen at 18,210 and 18,610.

  • After a correction of around 12 percent from the top of 18,604 levels, the Nifty has bottomed out near 16,400 - 16,370 zone which coincides with 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of previous advance from 14,151 – 18,604 levels and moved up with the formation of Higher Top Higher Bottom pattern. Also it has sustained above its 5-week high which indicates the Nifty has resumed its uptrend.

    On the daily charts, the Nifty has sustained above all important moving averages like 20, 50, 100 & 200 days which gives confirmation of the bullish sentiments for the medium to long term.

    However, the momentum indicator like RSI (relative strength index) is sustaining above 60 mark on all the time frames which indicate market has strong positive momentum for the medium to long term.

    We believe, the Nifty will face strong resistance at 18,210 and 18,604 mark. On the flip side, the support levels would be placed at 17,380 and 16,830 levels.

  • The bulls roared on Dalal Street as the Nifty closed above 17,900. Except IT, pharma, and power, all other sectoral indices ended in the green with auto, bank, metal, realty and oil & gas indices up 1-2 percent. The BSE Midcap index added 0.36 percent, while the Smallcap index ended on a flat note. The Nifty50 closed at 17,925 and the BSE Sensex at 60,233.

    The Nifty has given a breakout of descending broadening wedge formation and the next resistance will be around 18,000-18,050 levels. On the downside, supports have been now placed at 17,750-17,800. The index is traveling above its short and medium-term moving averages which is a positive sign and the participation from largecap counters is what gives confidence to investors.

    Though the global markets had mixed cues ahead of the release of the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes, on the domestic front traders are more hopeful with the RBI's decision to keep the reverse repo rate unchanged in the next policy amid an increase of corona cases.

    The major contribution has come from Bank Nifty which has given nearly 4,000 or 12 percent from the recent bottom in the last couple of weeks. The move seems to continue if it breaks and sustains above 38,000 levels.

  • December 31, 2021 - the extended due date for individuals to file income tax returns for the assessment year 2021-22 – has just passed by. Despite several requests from individuals and chartered accountants’ associations for another extension, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman ruled out any further extension.

    During the last few days, many complained that they were not able to access the income tax return e-filing portal or faced glitches in the final hours of the December 31 deadline. Those who failed to file income tax returns on time will now have to file a belated return under section 139 (4) of the Income Tax Act, 1961 before March 31, 2022. While you can exercise this option, it comes with a cost. For one, you will have to shell out a penalty of Rs 5,000 for delayed return filing. This amount is restricted to Rs 1,000 if your income is less than Rs 5 lakh. Also, you wil not be entitled to interest on tax refund due, if any. Moreover, you will not be able to carry forward or set off any losses incurred in financial year 2020-21.

    Also, those who completed the exercise before December 31 should not forget to verify the income tax returns filed. You have a window of 120 days from the date of having filed the returns to do so, without which, your returns will not be considered valid. You can either do it through the traditional, physical route or the electronic modes.

    Tune into Simply Save for insights from Preeti Khurana, Director, Regulation and Advocacy, Clear on consequences of not filing return before due date and the process for filing a belated return in such cases.

  • The Nifty50 is witnessing a fresh expansion phase after breaking out downsloping channel formation where 18,000-18,200 is an immediate target zone. If Nifty manages to take out 18,200 level then the bulls will eye for a fresh all-time high.

    On the downside, the cluster of 50 and 100-DMA (daily moving average), around 17,500 level will act as an immediate and strong support level at any pullback while 17,300-17,150 is the next demand zone.

    Momentum indicator RSI (relative strength index) has moved above the 60 mark that may generate thrust for further upside. Nifty is giving proper follow-up of bullish reversal morning star candlestick formation on the weekly chart.

    Bank Nifty is also witnessing a strong move after crossing the cluster of 20-DMA and 200-DMA in the 35,700-35,800 area. The upside momentum may continue, however, 37,200-37,600 is a critical resistance zone where we can expect a pullback because 37,200 is a cluster of 50&100-DMA and 37,580 is a previous swing high. On the downside, 36,500 is an immediate support level while 36,000-35,700 is a critical demand zone.

  • Nifty50 surged 272 points or 1.6 percent on the first day of the New Year to close at 17,626 levels on January 3. Intermediate trend turned bullish as Nifty has broken out from the downward sloping trendline, adjoining the highs of October 19 and November 15, 2021. During the last week, Nifty has surpassed the crucial resistances of 50 and 100-day EMA (exponential moving average) which gives further evidence of an uptrend. Short term indicators and oscillators like DMI (directional movement index), RSI (relative strength index) and MFI (money flow index) have been showing strength in the uptrend of Nifty.

    In the Index Futures segment, FIIs have been creating fresh longs, where their net long to short ratio is above two. In other words, out of their total positions in the Index Futures, 70 percent is in long side while 30 percent is in short side.

    In the Option segment, we have seen aggressive Put writing at 17200-17300 levels. This level also coincides with the 20-day EMA which is currently placed at 17237 odd levels. Therefore, we believe that short term trend will remain bullish till Nifty is trading above 17,200 levels.

    Next upside targets for Nifty is seen around 17,805 levels, followed by 18,000 levels. Longs should be protected with trailing stop-loss of 17,200 in Nifty.

  • Barring the initial hiccup on December 27, it was overall a week of consolidation as we were approached the monthly expiry as well as the end of the calendar year.

    The 17,200 – 17,300 zone was seen as crucial to dictating the immediate direction. The expiry session on December 30 started on a soft note and tested intraday support of 17,150 in the opening trade itself. This small down tick was merely a formality as we saw the Nifty recover immediately to erase losses.

    During the remaining part of the session, the index remained in a slender range with no clear direction. Eventually, the lacklustre session ended on a flat note, with the index staying a tad above the 17,200-mark.

    On December 31, we witnessed a good broad-based buying to conclude the year on a happy note well above 17,300.

    Despite some correction in the recent past, the Nifty managed to clock a gain of more than 24 percent year-on-year. With a close above 17,300, the index is likely to kick off the new year on a positive note.

    As a conservative trader, one can wait for a sustainable close above 17,400, which is the higher end of the ‘Downward Sloping Channel' on the daily chart. But the way individual stocks are behaving, it is likely to happen in the coming session only. After this, the immediate levels to watch out would be around 17,550–17,700.

    On the flip side, the base is shifting higher towards 17,000–16,800 before which 17,150 is to be considered as key support.

    Traders are advised to trade with a positive bias as long as the index remains above the mentioned base.

    The midcap index is well-poised, hence individual stocks are probably gearing up for a pre-budget rally. Let's see how things pan out and the coming week will confirm the short-term path of our markets.

  • The benchmark indices on December 29 saw a sideways opening and remained sideways the entire day. Global peers were a mixed bag. It seems that everyone is waiting for some news to react on. The current situation seems like a stall mate scenario.

    The range of 17,000-17,300 is very tight and bulls and bears are defending their respective territory very strongly. The major averages are flatting out. It shows that upper side move will be limited though downside also kept near to 17,000.

    Till the said range is in progress, there won't be any big move. The breakout and its follow-up will decide a further course of action in the market.

    Bank Nifty, the major component of the index is underperforming broadly. It is the major hurdle in further progress for Nifty.

  • For people across the world, 2021 has been a year to forget as COVID-19 continued to wreak havoc in many countries. India was amongst the worst-hit as the deadly second wave ravaged the country between March and May 2021.

    However, for stock and mutual fund investors, it was an exciting year with the stock market indices scaling new peaks, except towards the end of the year. The market benchmark indices S&P BSE Sensex and CNX NSE Nifty have yielded returns of 20 percent in year to date. The broader market indices - mid- and small-cap - have yielded returns of 35 percent and 60 percent respectively. The run-up in stock markets over the last one and a half years has got reflected in the performance of the equity schemes. While euphoria reigned supreme at the bourses in 2021, experts caution against expecting the kind of returns that investors saw in 2021.

    It was also an eventful year for the retirement funds space, with both Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) and National Pension System (NPS) witnessing several changes. Budget 2021 introduced a tax on interest earned on EPF contributions of over Rs 2.5 lakh, taking many employees – particularly those who contribute large amount to their voluntary provident fund (VPF) – by surprise. NPS saw its investment management fee go up, though it remains one of the cheapest retirement planning tool available today. The liberalised investment guidelines are expected to provide more options to invest for pension fund managers, though risks, too, could be higher.

    Taxation was in the news constantly with the income tax department extending timelines for filing returns and also launching a new tax return-filing portal. This new e-filing portal was beset with glitches since the launch, prompting tax consultants to demand another extension to compensate for the time lost due to teething troubles.

    What should investors keep in mind as we enter into the New Year, with worries over Omicron cases leading to some volatility in stock markets? Should employees who voluntarily contribute more than the statutory requirement to their VPF look at National Pension System (NPS) instead? Will the December 31 deadline for filing tax returns be extended once again?

    Tune into Simply Save to understand the impact that 2021 had on your finances.

  • Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart

    The Nifty50 is continuing the Santa rally, however, 17,250 is an immediate and important hurdle that Nifty has to take out for further move towards 100-DMA (daily moving average) which is currently placed at 17,400 level while 17,500/17,600 will be the next resistance levels.

    On the downside, 20-DMA of 17,150 will act as an immediate support level while 17,000 will be the next important support level. The bias is looking positive where it will be interesting to see whether bulls manage to take Nifty above 17,250 or not.

    If we look at the derivative data then Put writers are looking confident and have a strong belief that Nifty won't fall below 17000 before the expiry while the upside is open up to 17500 level. Put writers have become active in 17200-17100 territory therefore 17200-17100 area will act as an immediate support zone.

  • Moneycontrol’s Karunya P is in conversation with Artira Sarkhel Director, Public Policy, Wazir X & Rameesh Kailasam President & CEO Indiatech.org discussing the how Regulations in Cryptoworld is a necessary and welcome move.

  • The Nifty recovered 279 points from the day's low to close at at 17,096.30, the highest level since December 16. However, volumes have gone down as foreign institutional investors remain sluggish. The National Stock Exchange cash turnover was at its lowest since April 3, 2020.

    From the recent swing low of 16,410, the Nifty has managed to recover more than 4.5 percent. It is still in continuation of a downtrend, forming lower tops and lower bottoms on the daily charts. The previous swing on the daily chart was seen from 17,640 (top of December 13) to 16,410 (bottom of December 20).

    If we were to consider this downswing and apply 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement, then that level comes in at 17,170.

    If the Nifty manages to surpass 17,170 on a closing basis, it will be the first indication of bullish trend reversal. There has also been good amount of Call writing at 17,200 strike price, which indicates strong resistance.

    So, unless Nifty sustains above 17,200, trend will remain down. Currently 56 percent of NSE500 stocks are trading above their 200-daily moving average (DMA), which can be considered near the lower band of the last one year data. Downward sloping trend line adjoining the previous swing highs projects the strong resistance at 17,500.

    The Bank Nifty formed bullish "Piercing Line" candlestick pattern on December 27, which indicates the probability of a short-term reversal.

    A level above 35,478 would trigger the buy signal of this candlestick pattern and would also result in higher top preceded by higher bottom on the daily chart.

    Strong support for the Bank Nifty is seen at 34,000. Resistances for Bank Nifty are seen at 35,800 and 36,220.

    Indicators and oscillators like Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have developed positive divergence on the short-term chart of the Nifty as well as the Bank Nifty.

    We believe that markets are on the path to recovery, however, the short-term bullish trend reversal would be confirmed only above 17,170. The medium-term downtrend would be negated once we see the Nifty closing above 17,500.

  • One of the best ways of investing in the US markets is through stacks. But what are these stacks? How are they made and by whom? Tune into our podcast to know answers to these and more such questions. Let your investing journey in the largest stock market in the world begin here and now.